What must happen for the Kremlin to make good on its $2B promise to Kyrgyzstan

Last Updated on Tuesday, 3 March 2009 04:59 Written by admin Tuesday, 3 March 2009 04:59

Eurasia Insight reveals the answer – other unnamed CIS States are going to experience some cuts in previously promised Russian aid.

This underscores the importance to the Kremlin of denying the continued use of Manas airbase to the U.S. military. The obvious question is why?

According to the Russia Blog, Dr John C.K. Daly, a Washington D.C.-based consultant and an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute has the answer.

Dr. Daly writes that Washington hawks who want to blame the Kremlin for the U.S. getting booted out of the Kyrgyz base that has been critical to ongoing American military operations in Afghanistan since December 2001 have no one to blame but themselves. Dr. Daly adds that Washington should understand that the Kremlin no longer believes that the U.S. has the political will to stay in Afghanistan long-term and defeat the Taliban. Therefore Russia is making every effort to prop up its authoritarian friends in former Soviet Central Asia with economic aid, lest they too fall victim to the Taliban exporting heroin and jihad into their countries in the years to come. The whole reason the Obama Administration is now having to go hat in hand to Moscow and the so-called ‘Stans is because the Pakistani government can no longer secure the Kyhber Pass highway into Afghanistan.

Read Dr. Daly’s article at ISN here.

Kyrgyzstan Parliament to restrict Internet speech

Last Updated on Monday, 9 February 2009 11:01 Written by admin Monday, 9 February 2009 10:57

Kyrgyzstan’s citizens are the most prolific Internet users in Central Asia (14% saturation rate according to the International Telecommunications Union). With the recent rise of an opposition movement (the UPM), the media has become more polarized between those outlets which support the Bakiyev government and those that support the opposition. A recent DDoS attack on January 18 severely constrained Internet usage for several days. No one has claimed credit and the cause is up for debate (I posted my position on the attack here and here). This news, published at EurasiaNet.org, confirms my original suspicions.

Journalists in Kyrgyzstan have reasons to be afraid. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are notorious for blocking websites and locking up journalists. And last year the popular blog-hosting platform Live Journal was blocked in Kazakhstan when the exiled former son-in-law of the president used his blog to launch political attacks against President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s administration. Most Kyrgyz Internet traffic passes through neighboring Kazakhstan, thus rendering the site unavailable in Kyrgyzstan as well.

The Manas Decision: It’s not the money!

Last Updated on Wednesday, 4 February 2009 07:24 Written by admin Wednesday, 4 February 2009 07:24

The Ferghana.ru news agency reports on the official Kyrgyz government explanation for its Manas air base decision:

“The Agreement (on establishment of the US military base in Kyrgyzstan – Ferghana.Ru) was signed for one year with automatic prolongation for another year. The Agreement may be voided 180 days after notification of the other signatory of the intention to terminate the document.”

Plus, it’s a “human rights” issue:

“Afghani civilian casualties in air-raids of US and NATO aviation tripled in 2007 against what they had been in 2006.”

A few other mitigation factors mentioned in the news release include the murder of a Kyrgyz national named Ivanov by base personnel (Ivanov’s spouse appealed to the Constitutional Court to rule some provisions of the U.S. agreement as unconstitutional) as well as wide spread public discontent with the U.S. use of the base.

I’m wondering who the audience is for this bit of silliness. Does the Kyrgyz government really think anyone is going to believe that they’re worried about human rights abuses or that they’re not desperate for debt relief and massive capital investment in their country?