The Evolution of Preparing the NIC’s Global Trends 2025 Report
Last Updated on Sunday, 21 December 2008 01:25 Written by admin Friday, 21 November 2008 09:17
I haven’t read the full report yet. I hope to do so this weekend, but I did notice a trend in how this report was prepared in contrast to the NIC’s earlier efforts.
It reflects the larger trend that is happening within the business of Intelligence analysis overall; both in the National Security sector and in Business Intelligence – insular, stove-piped work is being replaced with barrier-busting exchanges of informed viewpoints across the globe. Here’s how the NIC authors break it down:
Global Trends 2010: “… relied exclusively on expertise within the U.S. Intelligence Community.”
Global Trends 2015: “…engaged more numerous and more varied groups of non-US Government experts, most of whom were American citizens.”
Global Trends 2020: “…we greatly expanded the participation of non-American specialists by convening six seminars on five continents.”
Global Trends 2025: “In addition to increasing still more the participation of non-USG experts from the United States and abroad to develop the framework for the current study, we shared several drafts with participants via the Internet and a series of discussion sessions across the US and in several other countries.”
Not only is this a great way to produce a forward-looking wide-ranging estimate like this one, it’s a model that’s being emulated by efforts like the Technology Intelligence Group (financial intelligence and analytics) as well as the efforts of DNI McConnell to promote an “Analytic Outreach” that cultivates relationships with experts outside of the black gate. I’ve certainly noticed a real movement in that direction by my own contacts within the IC.
Personally, I’m looking forward to reading this latest iteration of Global Trends 2025. I hope you are as well.
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